Toughest market I’ve seen in 7 years 🗞️ Real Estate Market Wrap

• 00:00 “They’re going to regret this.” Vendor rejects deal over $20K
• 01:50 Why buyers are frozen before the Federal Budget
• 03:06 Uncertainty is worse than bad news
• 03:32 The grandfathering warning ⚠️
• 04:41 “You never actually lost the $300K.”
• 05:39 “Cash is king.”
• 06:45 Why people are losing trust in politicians
• 07:57 Is intergenerational fairness just spin?
• 08:58 Young buyer asks: “How does this help me?”
• 10:18 Why there may be a rush of buyers before July

My Clearance Rate: 1/10

Transcript

The Cost Of Rejecting Offers

Tom Panos 0:00

And I've got to tell you, I had one vendor, they're gonna live to regret this. They're gonna live to regret this. They said no on a deal. Get ready for this. They said no on a deal for $20,000. And they said, we believe that next week they'll come back and increase their offer. But guess what? It wasn't any normal vendor. They have already exchanged contracts on another property. And they are settling in around five or six weeks. I actually said to them, listen, I'm getting paid regardless of whether your property gets sold or not today. I have zero agenda. Please listen to me. Sell it. Because every week I'm seeing people say no to a number, then go back and say yes to it, but the buyer's gone. I'm seeing it happen all the time. I had an auction today. They got a pre-auction offer of 2.2 million. They said no. And you know what they've got today? They got 1.5. They didn't sell it. They got 1.5. I haven't seen this marketplace as challenging as this since 2000 and probably that period of 2017 to 19. This is the hardest I've seen the market in six or seven years. No question

Budget Uncertainty Freezes Buyers

Tom Panos 1:24

about it, right? This is the hardest. And I'm actually even seeing it now in even the lower price point, is also getting some sort of resistance. It is the last Saturday before we have the biggest changes, the most dramatic changes that we have seen, probably for many people, particularly young people in living memory. So this time next week, ladies and gentlemen, we'll be operating in a new world of real estate taxation laws. The budget is going to be delivered on Tuesday night, and I can tell you today's results, two out of ten, not good again. That's a poor result. Two out of ten is uh indicative of the fact that many, many of the buyers are sitting back and they're waiting. They're waiting because they want to see what the new rules that they're going to be operating in in real estate are, which are going to be delivered by Jim Chalmers and his uh his team of uh politicians, if you want to call them that, on Tuesday night. Two out of ten, poor result. And I have to tell you, even uh one got sold prior. So, really, realistically, I actually I think I really only sold one property on the day. If you're a vendor and you haven't sold in the last one or two weeks, let's be really, really clear. You're operating in a marketplace that's basically got, you know, talk of interest rates, talk of capital gains tax changes, talk of negative gearing, talk of trust going on, talk of the war, talk of ongoing inflation. Like, let's be honest. You wouldn't call these conditions perfect seller conditions. They will be better next week. And the reason why is when something is uncertain, it's actually worse than being certain and bad. When it's uncertain, people get paralyzed. They get paralysis by overanalysis, not knowing what it

Cash Is King For Sellers

Tom Panos 3:28

all means. By the way, I'm hearing that it's not a given, it's not a given that they're going to be doing grandfathering. So just to remind people, what grandfathering means is this that whatever changes they make at the budget, right, that whoever owns real estate before the budget or the day that they say the new law starts aren't impacted, we're not getting certainty that that's going to happen. And let me tell you, if they don't do a rate, if they don't do grandfathering, full grandfathering, there will be a riot in the streets, and there should be an inquiry into the amount of politicians who have sold investment properties in recent times. They should look at that. They should look at it and see was there any information they were aware of that actually contributed to what appears to be, according to the press, a large number of politicians that have offloaded investment properties in recent times. I think they should look at that if they don't grandfather, right? The next thing I've got to tell you is I told an owner today, and I thought he was, he said to me, I can't believe I'm gonna lose $300,000 because they didn't sell six months ago. And I said to him, Listen, you never had that $300,000. How did you lose that $300,000? I think sometimes people do rush off to conclusions that aren't, in fact, that accurate, right? So you've got to be a really brave vendor to say no if your intention is that you really want to sell. Now, it makes no difference if you're the kind of person that turns around and says, hey, it's all good, I'll keep it for two years, three years, not a problem whatsoever. Hang on to it. But if you're a person that's transacting, now's not the time to play Mr. Courage, right? Cash is king in this market. I want to make that very clear. Cash is king. In fact, what the smart people are doing is, and I've got to tell you, I had two people that were forced selling. I've got to tell you, I actually reckon this is the rate rise that we had last this week on Tuesday, that I think is the one that's gonna cause the damage. I've noticed that. I've noticed that this is the rate that has changed the whole psyche of people. And I had two vendors today. One wealthy, one out west, not wealthy, one said, Tom, we're going to have to dispose of this asset. That's what the rich one said. You know what the poor one said? Tom, flogger, it's gotta go. Same thing. Have to sell, don't want to, have to sell. And I expect some of those to be popping up in the near future. A couple of other things I want to speak to you about today.

Grandfathering Fears And Political Trust

Tom Panos 6:43

Um, so by the way, you know why? In the last one week, you know what I've worked out? Don't ever, ever listen to a politician again. Because how could you only a year ago say we're not touching those tax laws, and then change it and say, we will do what we're faced with, right? I've got to tell you, people lose trust. People lose trust. Go the Tigers, thank you, Mel, go the Tigers against the storm. People lose trust, right? And I have to say to you, you know why they're doing it? In 2015, there was an election. That's when they were putting these taxes, they got voted out. In 2019, there was an election. Again. Right? But now they're putting these through laws without an election. Right? And they know that they've got a clear run because you've got, let's be honest, they're a useless liberal party at the moment. They're non-event. I mean, I reckon I'm louder than Angus, whatever he is, I don't even know his surname, Ferguson Paler, what is it? I don't even know his surname, right? And that's why they've got this clear agenda, no one's getting us in our way. So I've got to say to you, listen to me carefully. When they make those changes to those tax laws, if they don't compensate people with the money that they're gonna get by giving them more money after they pay their tax, change the thresholds. Because as far as I'm concerned, if you don't give that back to the younger generation, like you're saying, you're lying. What you've basically done is you just want to take as much money as you can, wherever it is, to make up for all the spending that you're doing. But if you genuinely cared about intergenerational equality, you would say, hey, we're doing this to negative gearing, we're doing this to capital gains tax, we're doing this to trust, but guess what? Young people, here, you're getting more money in your pay packet. Because as far as I'm concerned, I had a young person stop me at the Bay Run this morning, young kid, 20 years of age, thereabouts, might have been a touch older, who knows? It's irrelevant, really, what age he was. All he said to me is, can I ask you, mate? He goes, you know, this intergenerational equality thing that they're talking about in the budget, like, is that gonna help me? And I said, Well, it's supposed to, he goes, how's it gonna help me? They're getting rid of the exact stuff that made people wealthy in the first place, if that's what they're saying. And if they're not gonna give me more money in my pay packet, how am I being helped? Good question, young man. And I said,

Intergenerational Equality And What’s Next

Tom Panos 9:44

I don't know. And on that point, ladies and gentlemen, I'm going. By the way, real estate agents, two weeks to ARIC, so excited about it. Big conference, that will be the biggest ever. Apparently, ticket sales are at the highest run rate ever, which is quite surprising because I've got to tell you, we do have cost of economy. You know, April's been a dreadful month in the real estate industry between Easter's and Anzac days and school holidays and all the noise with uh big Donald Trump, right? By the way, Donald, just finish it off, brother. Just finish it off. Every time I think it's gonna come to an end, I took the I just jumped at it. I went and bought a ticket. I'm flying through those countries. I don't care. I'm leaving June the 6th. London, we're coming. Dublin, we're coming, Ireland, where else? We're going to Greece, we're gonna do a European tour, and we're gonna fit in two weeks' holiday as well. Guys and girls, next time we're speaking, this time next week, we're gonna be doing a total unpack of the detail. Because the devil is in the detail. Because I've got to tell you, if they basically say to people, hey, we're changing it from this date, don't be surprised. And I don't I I I think they'll change it from the first of July. My view is that it won't happen that night. They'll say 1st of July, there'll be a heap of activity done between budget and 1st of July. Example, if they turn around and they say, You can't negative deer uh after this date, I expect that there'll be a few people that'll probably buy properties in that period. But we're gonna have to see what the detail is. I'm gonna make sure I cover that during the week. Guys and girls, I want to thank you so much because I shoot this content because there's viewers and listeners. You're the ones. Otherwise, I wouldn't do it.