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How will the 2025 Election will affect Real Estate? 🗞️ Real Estate Market Wrap

• Tom Panos - Real Estate Coach & Trainer

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  • 50% of auctions were CANCELLED prior last week in Sydney
  • Why the Australian Government is failing us
  • My Clearance Rate: 7/10 SOLD
Tom Panos:

It is unexcusable that the government is not held accountable on making sure they meet their budgets. When you're an employee, you have a budget right. When you're an employee, you have responsibilities. The Australian politicians are employees that are funded by you and me. We pay their salary. We should have a voice if we feel that they're not doing a good enough job, and I can tell you they're failing on both migration and they're failing on new bills. In addition to that I want to let you know.

Tom Panos:

By the way, I've got to say to you there's a lot of stock that was going to be on the market in the last one or two weeks of this year, but what's happened is it's becoming a bit of a new norm. I've been talking about it for three, four years, and that is take advantage of Boxing Day. If you're a vendor that has got record eyeballs, record eyeballs, right, record eyeballs on realestatecom, why wouldn't you be launching then? Well, guess what? A lot of people are, and a lot of people are launching early in the new year, and I think we're going to get into real estate season a lot earlier than Australia Day. That's what happens. People come in after Australia Day and launch properties. I don't think that's happening. I think what's happening now is a lot of people are going to go earlier because they actually did not put it on in late December. Their properties is not being auctioned in December. They're going for a launch in the new year and I think that that's going to mean that we are going to have a lot of stock on the market then, and I think it's going to be a buyer's market then as well.

Tom Panos:

Now I've got to say to you, one of the things we've got to take into account is the election next year. So when you have an election, let me explain to you what it does to real estate. It puts it on pause. What happens is, for whatever reason, buyers and sellers want to actually wait to see what the resolution of the election is. So you normally see a slowdown of activity. Is that if there is a change of government and we saw that in the election that Labor was not going to lose the election that Scott Morrison won against Bill Shorten that market changed in two weeks. Anyone that was following the market back then will tell that it was in a weeks. Anyone that was following the market back then will tell that it was in a mess the minute the election was over, the amount of cars that were parked on streets at open home tripled. So, by the way, mel, I want to congratulate Mel Angeles, a great client of mine, mel Angelus, a great client of mine. He went all in, he left his home on the Gold Coast to move to Sydney with his family and he was instrumental in putting a deal together in Hunter's Hill last week for $11 million. And, mel, I hope it's one of many.

Tom Panos:

The election impact is one thing. Interest rate impact is the other. If they happen around the same time, middle of next year, I think that we'll start seeing the real estate market having strong, strong growth around the country. I have to say to you that if they don't, and if rates Don't go down, I think we're going to still see more of the same.

Tom Panos:

I want to let you know that today I had four clients that were distressed sellers. I'm going to repeat that. I had four clients that I was told by them or the agents they have to sell. The bank is about to take over. So I've got to say to you there is no question about it, there is pain out there and I think to myself if we did not have the amount of migration that we've had, prices would have gone back a lot harder across Australia. It's just that we've had this migration and I can tell you the data is very clear the government is failing on two KPIs. They were trying to slow down migration. They're not. They were trying to build more homes. They're not. End of story. That is a fact. This is black and white numbers.

Tom Panos:

And if you want to ask yourself why we have a hot housing crisis where you can't have Australians, people that have been paying taxes here for decades, people that are essential workers I'm talking about people that work in hospitals as nurses. I'm talking about firemen. I'm talking about school teachers and I'm talking about people that work in hospitals as nurses. I'm talking about firemen. I'm talking about school teachers and I'm hearing stories over and over again that these wonderful human beings and citizens of this country often cannot even rent a property out. I mean, let's face it, you know, in parts of Sydney now, you're paying a grand a week to rent, right, some areas two grand. I reckon I'd do a much better job than Albanese.

Tom Panos:

But I'm feeling, I'm very happy because I can tell you I don't think Albo is going to get back in, and I actually think that the only thing that's going to move this market up significantly across Australia is the government being changed and interest rates going down, and I think that all of that is going to happen middle of next year. That's what I think, and I am letting you know that 50% of properties that's right, 50% of properties in Sydney last week were cancelled prior to auction, and that's another reason why I have chosen that I'm not going to work on the 21st of December, but instead I'm going to go do a nice tour of that beautiful country in New Zealand. So today's results were significantly better than I've had in the last previous weeks. Is it because the markets changed? No, we're far too smart to actually make decisions based on one week and, as I've said before, one hot day does not make a summer. Why do I think it happened? I had the kind of properties today that were selling. I had vendors that were probably more motivated and, let's be very clear, the media has been very loud in the last couple of weeks about what's going to happen in real estate next year. It's been confirmed also by data companies and no one's got a monopoly on the truth. Let's be very clear.

Tom Panos:

But the forecast. In fact, what I might do? What I might do is actually just read out some of the forecasts of 2025 by the data companies. Let's look at SQM's figures. Louis Christopher, sqm's figures quarter to a half a percent and we continue to have population growth of 500,000 plus and we don't have any outbreaks where Sandra Bullock says oh no, inflation, inflation, inflation it's stubborn. Et cetera, et cetera.

Tom Panos:

If Sandra Bullock doesn't freak out too much, we will actually end up having, according to SQM, an increase of 14% to 19% in Perth. Brisbane 9% to 14%, darwin 5% to 8%. Melbourne minus 5% to minus 1%. Sydney minus 5% to minus 1%, adelaide 6% sorry, adelaide 8% to 13% increased. Hobart minus three to plus two and Canberra minus six to minus two. We're talking about a national average next year of 1% to 4% thereabouts. But to me, the highlight there is that the two cities, sydney and Melbourne, who have been the real estate cities for years, for decades in this country, won't be in 2025, according to SQM, who are very accurate forecasters.

Tom Panos:

Now I want to say to you this I don't agree totally with these forecasts. I believe that they're being significantly bullish on both Perth and Brisbane. I believe that we have already started to see a slowdown. In Perth and Brisbane. We have already started to see prices actually coming off the ball. They're not dropping much, but what we are seeing is days on. Market is growing in those areas and I think that that's going to continue. So I do think that they'll fare better than other parts, but I don't think that they will be anywhere near what SQM is saying.

Tom Panos:

Someone has just said is there any funny stories today? No, the only funny story today is I spoke to a buyer you know, and I casually if I'm there five or 10 minutes early at an auction, I get chatting with people. I said to him how long have you been looking? He said to me six years. He's been looking for six years. Kelly, if a buyer has been looking for six years, let me tell you they're not a buyer, they're a chronic looker. They are not a buyer. If you've been looking for six years, you're not a buyer. Someone's just asked me very quickly there what I'm thinking Adelaide is going to do, and I think it's going to be actually probably the second best city performer next year somewhere around 10%. Louis Christopher says 8% to 13%. Door Tam says he went to three auctions today in Brisbane, two passed in and one had no registered bidders. Ipswich is a different market to Brisbane and is very strong, says Simon. Anyway, team, as I said to you, 50% of properties last week got pulled off prior to auction in Sydney. Why is that? They either had no buyer or they had one buyer. That's the only reason.

Tom Panos:

I also want to tell you that another reason which is often not talked about, another reason why we actually have got a housing crisis, is the amount of people that live in a house per household has gone down. You see, let's face it, zoom is here to stay. People don't go to work on a day, right, they might go to work on three days a week, and they're working from home. Because they're working from home, they needed more space. Because they needed more space, what's been happening is that there is less people living for household. This has been one of the other causes of our housing issues the fact that we need more properties. But guess what? Guess what? Hey Cameron wants me to become prime minister. Mate, I've got to tell you I wouldn't do the job. I wouldn't do the job and a lot of people probably wouldn't want me to do the job, so it's mutual. So team, the Zoom effect is a serious effect.

Tom Panos:

Now I often have people ask me what would I buy? What would I buy? Well, listen, I love real estate. I started buying houses in the inner west when I was a young kid. I would buy houses and I would add value to them by spending a bit of money polishing the floors, putting a new kitchen in, tidying up the bathroom, getting it revalued, picking up $50,000 in growth out of it and then using the equity out of the property to buy another property. That was my model In the last 10, 15 years.

Tom Panos:

I'm far more interested in blocks of units. Blocks and units to me, are the best investments. Why? Why I don't have a high, high risk profile, so I'm not suited to commercial. I don't know what I would do not having a commercial tenant for three, six months, whereas residential it'll be vacant for a few weeks. That's about it.

Tom Panos:

But I've got to tell you yeah, malcolm, good to hear from you. Malcolm, I couldn't afford the pay cut. Now the truth is, the politicians don't like what's Albo on Albo's on 500 grand a year. Afford the pay cut Now the truth is, the politicians don't like what's elbow on elbows on 500 grand a year. I've got to tell you, in real estate you could make 500 grand like that and you wouldn't have to worry about all the stuff that comes with politics. Five hundred thousand dollars. You could make it as long as you were prepared to work about two or three extra hours a day than what the rest of the population does, as long as you were prepared to make about two or three extra hours a day than what the rest of the population does, as long as you're prepared to make lots of phone calls, as long as you didn't personalise rejection and the setbacks that you get in real estate, as long as you could manage free time and as long as you could actually deliver bad news in a positive way and tell the damn truth on a consistent basis and stop trying to be a people pleaser all the time. You'll make a great living out of real estate. Right, and I think you can make.

Tom Panos:

Look, auctioneers don't get paid the average. There was an article that talked about the average income of an auctioneer. The average income an auctioneer makes is $100,000 a year. Right, and I've got to tell you, if you're only going to be working like limited hours which what is a auctioneer generally does? You know, most of them are just working Saturdays. To be honest with you, man, I think that's more than enough money. I mean, auctioneering is such a small part of my life and I think who makes a good auctioneer? You know someone that's got a, you know, got a bit of humour, someone that can read. You know someone that's got a bit of humour, someone that can read the play, someone that can be a bit of an entertainer. You don't have to be that bright. You can see that there's a heap of private schools that have flunked school out in various eastern suburbs, north Shore. They've rocked up as auctioneers. You don't have to be super bright, I can tell you that. Anyway, team, I've got to say to you a lot of stock is going to be coming on. You can tell the buyers are at Westfield. I've got to say to you thank you, mel.

Tom Panos:

I also want to let everyone know my real estate gym training platform that has been going for, I think, around a decade. The doors are now open for our membership recruitment for 2025. When you join the Real Estate Gym now, you train till Christmas for free and then you have everything. I'm pretty much your coach and I'm so happy there are so many of our Real Estate Gym members that came into our program. They used to do 10, 20 sales and now they do 100 sales. We have people doing 100 sales. We have people doing 200 sales. We have people doing 300 sales. I'm so happy. The average performance of a real estate gym member is significantly more than the rest of the industry. Why? Because they have contact with us on a daily basis. They get notified by us every morning, six days a week, ladies and gentlemen, and we run courses. Hey, henry, good to see you again Another great client of ours. Good to see you all. Anyway, ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's market wrap.

Tom Panos:

I want to let you know it's been a very challenging month. I've kept it to myself. I had a close friend of mine take his life and it took me time to process it all. And all I can say to you, if you are going through a very difficult, challenging time, you've got to remember. You've got to avoid those three P's where you personalise it, you think you're the only person going through it. The second P is that you think it's permanent. It never is. Tough times don't last, but tough people do. And the third P it doesn't have to be pervasive. One area of your life you can try, and you know, compartmentalize it, but it only happens in that area. So if something's not going right for you, you can still go for a walk, you can still, you know, stay close with your family, you can still pray, exercise, laugh, right, anyway. Team signing off.