Gut Feelings vs. Data: Making Smarter Decisions in Real Estate 🗞️ Real Estate Market Wrap

1:54 - Real Estate Auction Success Amid Market Uncertainty
3:05 - Quality Stock and Insights 
3:55 - Impact of Superannuation Access on First Home Buyers
5:49 - AI's Transformative Impact on Real Estate Practices
8:20 - ChatGPT as a New Lead Source for Real Estate Agents
10:30 - Election Uncertainty and Reserve Bank Rate Predictions
11:01 - Intuition Versus Logic in Decision-Making


My Clearance Rate: 10/10 SOLD 

Chapters

• 0:00 Real Estate Market and Government Policies
• 9:32 Reserve Bank Governor and Interest Rates

Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:00

The Liberal Government has announced that if they were to get into power on a federal election that is, on or before May 17, that they are going to allow first home buyers to access their superannuation their superannuation.

Speaker 1: 0:27

Ladies and gentlemen, I want to let you know today I conducted 10 auctions scheduled, though seven went ahead and it is a 100% day, 10 sold out of 10, where they all sold under the hammer, except for two properties that sold after the auction, but within about 30 minutes of the auction. Do I think that the decision during the week brought the buyers out into the market? No, I think what it does is that someone that was thinking of buying then becomes more certain of buying. I don't think that there was someone who was not a buyer last Saturday who is a buyer this Saturday. It doesn't work that way. In real estate. It doesn't work that way. In fact, it could take a number of weeks before buyers who feel that rates are gonna to be going down get their loans approved, do their due diligence, look at a property, take a contract to a solicitor. It could take some time. However, 10 out of 10, numbers don't lie 100% clearance rate, and that, to me, is essentially saying a number of things happened, and that was people were less scared. But also, I think I look at the stock that I had today and it was good quality stock. It was very good quality stock.

Speaker 1: 1:57

Now there's a couple of things I want to cover. Hey, stephen, good to see from you as well. Good to see from you as well, sir, but I've got to let you know you've just proven to me, steve, that you don't need to have a long neck to be a goose. That's what you've proven to me, steve. Ladies and gentlemen, I want to let you know that the Liberal government has announced that if they were to get into power on a federal election that is, on or before May 17, that they are going to allow first home buyers to access their superannuation. Okay, now, that means that you're going to go in and if you've got enough super in there, you can take up to 50 grand and use it as a deposit on a property. On the surface, let me tell you, buyers are going to get excited.

Speaker 1: 3:02

But there's a case study. This happened in New Zealand and I can tell you the winners aren't the first home buyers. The winners are the owners of real estate, because prices go up and they'll be going up not only the 50 grand, they'll be going up more because all of a sudden you've got a lot more buyers in the buyer pool that are fighting over these properties and I can tell you right here, right now, that if that were to happen if you see what happened in New Zealand they outstripped the Australian market when they brought that policy in in 2010 significantly. It wasn't double, but it was close. So I'm all for making it easy for first home buyers, but I'm not absolutely convinced that this is going to be the solution. I'm not absolutely convinced that this is going to be the solution. Regardless, it's really clear real estate is going to be one of the key policies that is going to win this election and also, of course, cost of living. This, in surveys, has come up as the highest priority by the voters, and I've got to tell you. The only other reason today that we got 10 out of 10 is a lot of the real estate clients I work with have been trained to actually make sure they're not doing what a lot of our industry does, which is they go in, they overprice to get the listing and then they come out with a sledgehammer and hit their owners down and they will make a sale, so it will appear as sold. But what you don't actually see is the qualitative effect of that approach. You see the quantitative effect it's a sale. The qualitative effect is you've got a very vendor that's disgruntled and upset because they were told they'd get a lot more and they're actually hit with a hammer. Now I'm training my real estate agents now to be using AI as part of their vendor reports. You can get your realestatecom report, your CRM report, say, from Agent Box, and you put them together and then you say to chat, gpt, analyze the data each week and create an executive summary and I can tell you it is extremely powerful and extremely informative to the clients.

Speaker 1: 5:36

I believe there are three things in the last 40 years that have been big in real estate. Two of them have happened. The first one was in the 80s the emergence of the franchise model and brands. Before that it was independent officers. Then we just saw franchising actually set itself up on the landscape of real estate. The second major change in the last 40, 50 years has been portals, particularly realestatecom, which changed the game both in media and also gave the consumer a lot more information in media and also gave the consumer a lot more information. Basically, consumers became valuers and the realestatecom just sold section becomes the NRL or AFL ladder. That's telling consumers out there, vendors in a marketplace, who is selling what. How much are they selling them? Who's selling the most? So it's like a ladder that's saying this agent is better than the other. And the third thing, my friends, that is changing the game is AI.

Speaker 1: 6:50

I myself have seen what it's done to my business. I just cannot get over how much of the new business people that I did not have a relationship with are reaching out, all because they're going into chat GPT and saying who's the best real estate trainer, coach, who's the best motivation speaker, who's the best auctioneer? So I've gone in and I've looked at it and, because of my heavy content creation over the last 20 years, seo is getting me coming up number one in all of those and what basically is happening is this is becoming now a lead source. The reason I share this is I see it very soon that chat GPT will be something that vendors will use in agent selection. They'll get on their phone because it's easy and it's fast and they'll say want to sell my house in Newtown, who should I call. And that means every real estate agent watching this has to jump in and double down and triple down really hard on content creation, because chat GPT is actually above Google, right, and it's sucking up every bit of information and intel out there. And right now I can also tell you I had a one-on-one well, actually, john McGrath and I had a two-on-one with the CTO Chief Technology Officer of Ryan Serhan in the USA, and I can tell you they're actually going out to listing presentations and before they go out, they're actually putting the vendors through social media, chat GPT analysis and they're going out to a listing presentation, having analysed what is the best approach to communicate with that vendor. It's unbelievable. In fact, I was the subject and the scientist. They put me through. It only takes 30 seconds and it actually said if you're going to go list Tom Panos, these are the things that he highly values. This is the language you should be using. Anyway, ladies and gentlemen, I'm letting you know real estate is hot right now.

Speaker 1: 9:06

I don't know what the federal election is going to do to the marketplace. I know that for a couple of weeks there'll be people not putting their homes on the market. We're all anxiously waiting on when that election is going to be. It's got to be on or before May the 17th. So I see a fair bit of property will get processed until that announcement. Then I see maybe a bit of a pause.

Speaker 1: 9:32

And if you listen to Sandra Bollock, the Reserve Bank Governor, she's turned around and she's sort of saying there won't be another rate cut for a long time. That's what she said. In fact I think she hinted to February next year. To be honest with you, I wouldn't trust the thing you're hearing at the moment in terms of when it's going to be honest with you, I wouldn't trust the thing you're hearing at the moment in terms of when it's going to be, because I think the Reserve Bank makes up their mind on the day. I don't think that they sit there with scientists and modelling and come up with a decision a week before. I think they sit down in that boardroom and say, yeah, let's go for it, or they say give it another month.

Speaker 1: 10:17

I don't think there's much more science to it and the reason I say it as someone who's worked in the corporate world with a Murdoch for a very long time people underestimate how much people make decisions on intuition and quite frankly, I don't think that's a great decision. Intuition, and I'll tell you why. Because gut feeling decisions aren't great. Here's an example If I said to you that if you went to a shop to buy some coffee and a cookie and the total price was $1.10, but the price of the coffee is a dollar more than the cookie, what price does that make the cookie worth? Think about that. I'd love to hear the answer, because I can tell you nearly every one of you are going to say 10 cents, but that's not the right answer.