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Real Estate Market Wrap šŸ—žļø Appraisal Numbers Are Concerningly Low

ā€¢ Tom Panos - Real Estate Coach & Trainer

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00:00 ā€“ How the Election affects auction day

01:34 ā€“ Supply & demand

03:56 ā€“ My Clearance Rate: 7/11

05:07 ā€“ Iā€™m concerned that appraisal numbers are this low

06:16 ā€“ West Tigers will beat the Brisbane Broncos

06:51 ā€“ Elon Musk has learnt his lesson

Tom Panos:

And whilst we're talking about the federal election, during the week I had one, two, three auctions sorry, four auctions where the vendors turned around and said we want to cancel our auction, that's the day of the election. We don't want to risk it. Can we make it the following week? Listen, it takes five minutes to vote. Right, it takes five minutes to vote on a Saturday. It's not going to affect your auction result if you actually move it to the day after, right? Look, easter, I'd say, is different. Long weekend people might hit Byron Bay Blues Festival, if that's on, I'm not sure, right, people go away. But on election day they get into their cars, they put their Birkenstocks on, they put a pair of shorts on, they go, tick a box and then that takes five, ten minutes. Right, they can still be at an auction, right? But anyway, we've moved those auctions. And I'll tell you why we've moved those auctions because I like to close the door of excuses. Because if a home doesn't sell because the vendor is not meeting market value, I don't want the vendor to turn around and say oh, it's not our price, it's because we auctioned on election day. Close the door of excuses, don't argue with your vendors, but I've got to tell you, if you're a buyer out there, you've just got to look at basic economics, right.

Tom Panos:

The basic economics is that the current Labor government is way behind their actuals versus targets for building homes. I've actually got a few notes here. So between 2004 and 2009, there is a goal to do 1.2 million new dwellings. But when you actually break that down into per quarter, if Australia continues at its current run rate by 2029, we will be short 500,000 houses. So we've already got a shortage right. We got a shortage already. That's why we've got this housing issue, both in rentals and sales. But what I'm saying is, with the migration that's going in, the government said oh, we can handle that, we're going to build 1.2 million new homes. Well, guess what? They're not. They're nowhere near achieving their quarterly targets.

Tom Panos:

And, quite frankly, if you had to score like so, I worked for Rupert Murdoch for close to 20 years. I'm still contracted to News Corp A lot of people didn't know that and I was one of the few people that used to actually present to Rupert Murdoch. The CEO did, and I was one of a few others that used to present to Rupert Murdoch and I can tell you if I sat down in front of Rupert Murdoch and said to him our target is this and our actual is this. He would say well, give me the plan on how you're going to make the gap. But you know what, in politics there's no accountability. And I'll tell you why. Because in 2029, when we're going to look at the result of target versus actuals, elbow won't be there, done probably won't be there anyway either. So the real issue you've got to turn around and say is why do governments fail? Because ultimately, they're not accountable. That's why, so far, we have a success rate of 7 out of 11 today. 7 out of 11 today Not a bad result. But I have to tell you, around Australia I have lots of real estate agents that are telling me that they need training to narrow the gap between buyer and seller, which says to me, things aren't great all round at the moment and real estate agents are needing to price properly, work by as well and make sure that they're 10 out of 10 in their vendor education, their 10 out of 10 in their vendor education.

Tom Panos:

I've got to say to you, ladies and gentlemen, I'm also a little bit concerned because it's been confirmed to me by two very large companies that have got access to appraisals and it was also confirmed to me by who was it? Tim Snell from Ray White head office and they've got a really good helicopter view about real estate as well because of their size across Australia. And it's concerning that appraisal numbers are low and appraisal numbers are a leading indicator to listings, and appraisal numbers are very low Now. Are they low because no one wants to get an appraisal during this election period? Or are they low because people are not having confidence to put their properties on the market? But what we clearly know is that high appraisals equals high listing numbers coming through the following months. Low appraisals equals low listing numbers coming through.

Tom Panos:

Now I've got to say to you, history shows that after a federal election, there's normally an onslaught of properties that do come onto the market. I'm not 100% certain that's going to happen, because our federal election is leading into the winter period, which, generally speaking, is not a period where there's an abundance of of listings going on. So all I've got to say to you is watch. This space Market is all over the place and it has been for a while. Where one thing goes off, another doesn't go off, but at you know, seven out of 11, and I've been told my last one's most likely going to sell.

Tom Panos:

And I can tell you, I told Theo from Breakfast Point Realty this morning when I was doing a run. He was walking around with his mates Stapleton, one of the Tigers chiefs there. I told him. I said to him Parramatta is going to win by a couple and they won by one. And I'm telling you, you're hearing it right here, right now West Tigers will beat Brisbane Broncos at Suncorp tonight. Mark that down. Now I've got to say to you keep your eyes on the prize and stay in your swim lane. Even Elon Musk hey, you want to tell you something about Teslas and Elon Musk. So I used to.

Tom Panos:

Before I've had a Tesla, I've got a Tesla X and I've had one for like eight years. Right before I've had a Tesla, I've got a Tesla X and I've had one for like eight years. Right, I've had Tesla eight years and I still remember the day that I parked my Tesla. So the main area that I've been auctioneering over the last 30 years has been Newtown, chippendale, darlington, that inner city area, and it's a very you know it's, I would say it's a very you know it's, I would say it's.

Tom Panos:

Politically, it's on the left and a very strong strong. They drift towards the Green Party, put it that way. So when I moved from having a Porsche to a Tesla, I've got to tell you that community at Newtown man like I'll give you an idea You'd park your car and if you parked it sort of like one or two, three centimetres or a little bit over towards the driveway, because the streets are very narrow in Newtown people would see this Porsche there. They'd come out, ah, move it, move it, move it. When I got the Tesla, when I got the Tesla, I've got to tell you parents would come out with their little kids in Newtown hey, can I put the little one in the Tesla? They'd love to get in the car. They loved it, loved it. But guess what? It's the same people that have turned on Elon Musk and Tesla. Now it's that same demographic that's turned on them. It is the environmental friendly, green left side of politics.

Tom Panos:

The irony of it all is Elon Musk, though he is the boss of Tesla. He owns about 13% of Tesla. So when they're smashing Tesla, they're smashing a lot of other people before Elon. But I hope Elon's learned a lesson as well. Elon's learned a lesson in the last few months and that is, make the main thing. The main thing and what's the main thing your business, your family. When you get sidetracked and you get distracted and you do other things, something's going to cop it and that's what we've seen happen in the USA. But he's done the intelligent decision to go back and focus on his business, signing off.