7 figure Attraction Agent

Real Estate Market Wrap 🗞️ Rates Aren't Coming Down Anytime Soon

• Tom Panos - Real Estate Coach & Trainer

Share episode

Send us a text

Real Estate Market Wrap 🗞️ 

- Rates aren’t coming down anytime soon

- Why we can expect more withdrawals and cancellations

- And my market predictions based on the latest data from Louis Christopher, SQM Research

🔥 My Clearance Rate: 7/12 SOLD


To work with me in the Real Estate Gym - www.realestategym.com.au

👉 Join the Black Belt waitlist - https://secure.realestategym.com.au/blackbelt26-waitlist

SPEAKER_00:

$9,000 a month for the lower end in Sydney.$0,000 a month. That's like$2,300 a week you're paying out of your after-tax money. And you haven't even bought Mount Franklin water. You haven't put fuel in your car. You haven't gone to Kohl's and bought milk and bread. Do you understand what I'm saying? In a year that saw interest rates come tumbling down, and confidence grew astronomically throughout the year. As the Reserve Bank was chopping away, the amount of interest in buyers went up and compounded and compounded until October 29. Until October 29, that is the defining day when the inflation figures came out, and the Reserve Bank said, no, no, no, no. You're not getting a rate cut on Melbourne Cup Day. No, no, no, no. You're not getting a rate cut early in the new year either. If things continue, and guess what? They did. Inflation numbers out last week didn't come in the two to three percent bandwidth, and we now know, we now know that the inflation number drives the interest rate. So we know when the inflation number comes out, what's gonna happen in a reserve bank decision, and it looks like it ain't coming down anytime soon. In fact, my good mate Mark Burrus has actually indicated he believes that the next rate movement is gonna be up. I'm not so sure. And I believe that that's got a lot to do with the inflation numbers that are gonna come out. And the good news is apparently the Reserve Bank's got the technology now. I'm well, thanks, Joseph, the technology now to be able to look at things in smaller periods of time so they'll be able to make more dynamic decisions. So I've got to say to you that this change that happened about a month ago, roughly a month ago. So October 29th, what are we today? Oh wow, that's we're on the 29th, exactly four weeks ago. I've got to say to you, the market's changed. No question about it. The real estate market that I operate in has changed. It has become easier for the buyer. There is less fear of missing out than what there was in September, August, even July. Buyers are walking away. Why has there been a change in the market? Sentiment has changed because people are thinking interest rates are not going down. The second reason is the stock supply increased dramatically and it was a late spring. So those two things have meant that things aren't blowing out and we are not having a crazy boom. Having said that, you all know that there are submarkets around the country, and when you look at the SQM, Louis Christopher, who does his yearly November forecast for 2026, has indicated he believes that we're going to have increases. Perth, Adelaide, 15-17% thereabouts. Sydney and Melbourne, who've normally been the you know the two leading teams in the competition, they're out towards the bottom, ladies and gentlemen. They're out towards the bottom. And Louis Christopher is being very bullish. Like he's basically indicated even if we get no rate cuts, we're gonna have increases. Luke Moroni says Brisbane is going nuts, and he is right. My clients in Brisbane, I mean, I've got clients in Brisbane that are banking that they're gonna, I've got one agent who, Robbie, he told me he reckons he's gonna sell 20 properties. In the sorry, no, not Robbie, that's the other guys. So Robbie reckons he's gonna sell around 10 in the next three weeks. He just says everything's just selling. Same with in Perth, everything is just selling. Same as is in Adelaide, everything is selling. So I've got to say to you, uh, by the way, if you're a vendor and you're trying to time it right, do yourself a favor, be on the market in January. I've told you, I don't want you to be on the market late December. They're out at Westfield, they're out at Christmas parties, and they're at Bondai Beach. Be in the market when there's no stock in January. That's what I'd be doing. And I've got to say to you, I know, I know the market's changing because I had quite a few sold prior, and sold prior are an indication that there would have only been one really strong bidder at the auction, which says to me there's no depth in buyers. Obviously, it is price point contingent, but I've got to say, and this is not me trying to be a you know scare people, but all you've got to do is understand we've got a large cohort of people in Australia, thanks to ALBO's idea to give people uh the ability to buy with a 5% deposit. You've got to make sure that this inflation number gets under control because I don't want to see people having borrowed 95% at an interest rate that they thought was going down, and in fact, it goes up. Guys, we've gone down that path before. You remember what happened? We had the old reserve bank guy saying, hey, rates aren't going up, rates aren't going up, they're going down. They encouraged everyone to spend money. The banks, they were right into it. Of course they are. Banks want to lend money, that's how they make money. But do yourself a favor over this holiday period, go watch the movie The Big Short, and have a look at what happens when you lend money to people in an irresponsible way and not look at their ability to have a track record of saving money. And that's what you've got with the five percenters. Now, I'm not saying all 5% people are irresponsible with money, but what I am saying is that if you're borrowing 95% and you've only got 5%, and that rates go up, and all of a sudden, you're already paying, like on a$1.5 million property, let's be really clear, on a 5% deposit, your loan repayment's about eight and a half grand. Now, when rates start going up, mate, it goes up from eight and a half grand a month to nine grand, what have you. Team, listen to me carefully. Think about what I just said.$9,000 a month for the lower end in Sydney.$9,000 a month. That's like$2,300 a week you're paying out of your after-tax money. And you haven't even bought Mount Franklin water, you haven't put fuel in your car, you haven't gone to Kohl's and bought milk and bread. Do you understand what I'm saying? Just tread carefully in the way that you go off. Very different, very different when you've got money, right? Because money makes money. Team. Anyway, so tonight, ladies and gentlemen, oh by the way, today, seven out of twelve. It's not as easy as what people think it is. Seven out of twelve. Gone are the fourteens out of the fourteens. It's changing. And it's not just me. I've done a ring around to a lot of the auctioneers, including the chief auctioneer of the biggest group in Australia. I've done, I've done the runaround, right? And it's not me. Overall, last two weeks has been absolutely harder, less so in other cities. Withdrawans and cancellations are an absolute sign of a market that is softening, and I predict that there's going to be a lot more withdrawans and cancellations on the 13th and the 20th of December. And by the way, I've got to tell you, someone stopped me on the Bay Run today and he said, Do you know, Tom, you were the only person that had a voice in 2020 that went against what everyone else said. He said, Have a look, brought it up on AI, and he said, You said in May and April that don't listen to the headlines. Prices are not going to drop 35%. You said they're going to go up. They're going to go up and they're going to go up hard. And you said it, and no one else really said that. Everyone else was doing the panic party. And you know why I said it? Because there's something, my friends, there's something, my friends, that you get when you've got access to being on the ground and seeing data in real life, not historic data in real life at the cutting edge. And then all it takes is someone that's got, you don't have to be super smart, but basic understanding of some of the economic principles and a simple understanding that demand and supply is the biggest driver of prices in real estate in the world. And if you look at the factors that are going to affect the demand, and the factors that are going to meant the supply, and it meant that there was hardly going to be any properties on the market, and that's the ones that were going to go up, and that's exactly what happened. So, team, I'm letting you know to the real estate agents, to the real estate agents that are on here, my training in 2026 is very simple. Real estate gym is around$65 a month, and I work with you mainly online. The real estate gym for less than a coffee a day. I will be your virtual coach. And for those that are on the black belt program, it's all being finalized. We have more people that have applied for it. And the reason why, it's a face-to-face one. It has got monthly accountability. I'm going to be on your WhatsApp group with your EBU on a day-to-day basis. And that's why that's been oversubscribed. But we haven't actually finalized who are the final people. We have selected now, I think Susan has said 32. We're still going to put in another eight. Everything in my training, go to Instagram, LinkedIn bio, or go to Tom Panos, go to real estate gym. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm going to sign off. You've got Luke, I remember seeing you, uh Sal on Byron Bay Beach in 2020 saying to buy, buy, buy 100%. Buy, buy, buy.